Zimbabwe Likely To See Significantly Decreased Role For Extra-Government Non-State Actors Over Next Five Years

Executive Summary:
Due to large amounts of instability, low levels of democracy, concentrated corruption, and a somewhat difficult level of conducting business, it is likely that extra-governmental non-state actors (NSAs), such as the Movement for Democratic Change, currently play the most influential but still minimal role within Zimbabwe (represented by its score of 2 on the Extra-Government side of the Role Potential spectrum). However, within the next five years, it is likely that the role NSAs play will significantly decrease. This is primarily due to President Mugabe's recent law allowing the Parliament, which is ruled by his political party, to choose his successor in the event that he dies before his term in office is up. Additionally, it is the result of continued government initiatives to gain more control over the country and close organizations they find threatening to its power, as well as a consistent decline in the economic and business sectors that will dramatically lower the amount of outside investment and business within the country.

Analytic Confidence: 7
Source Reliability: 9

Discussion:

Overall Score	Democracy Var.	Doing Bus. Var.	Corruption Var.
Failed States Var.	Geo Dis- NGOs	Geo Dis- Bus.	Geo Dis- Ter Grps.